Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Jagiellonia welcome Wisla Plock to Chorten Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chorten Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Wisla Plock 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 63% | Wisla Plock 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.65 xG and Wisla Plock 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.881 / defence 0.964 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Jagiellonia games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Plock 4.35. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Jagiellonia 1.65 / Wisla Plock 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.881 / def 0.964 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Wisla Plock xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 47% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (0.88) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
47%
2.15
30%
3.31
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.78
1.13
Wisla Plock xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.13 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 11D 9L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Plock away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.74 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 63%, Wisla Plock at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Jagiellonia) and 47% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jagiellonia's games and 68% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jagiellonia's matches and 47% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.