Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.70 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 56% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.83 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / defence 0.987 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.83 / Radomiak Radom 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / def 0.987 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.714 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 4W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.71x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.44
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.73
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
41.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.90 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 8D 16L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.23 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 7D 10L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.33 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.63 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 63%, Radomiak Radom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Pogon Szczecin and 63% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 63% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.