Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 2 for Pogon Szczecin and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Pogon Szczecin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.94 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.845 / defence 0.990 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.970 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Wisla Plock games / 42 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 24% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 40%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 20% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 24% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 0.94 / Pogon Szczecin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.845 / def 0.990 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.970 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 24% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 40% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (7 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.84x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
24%
4.22
37%
2.73
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.19
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.22
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.80
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.25 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 12D 15L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 17W 9D 16L from 42 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.36 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.40 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 9D 16L in their last 42 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.55 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
From 7 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Wisla Plock and 40% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.