Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 40%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Sep 2026, ended Wisla Plock 1–1 Pogon Szczecin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 47% versus Pogon Szczecin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 40% | Pogon Szczecin 51%). Note also that Pogon Szczecin surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Wisla Plock recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.28 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.861 / defence 0.968 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.812 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Wisla Plock's last 47 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 28%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.48 | Draw 3.11 | Pogon Szczecin 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wisla Plock's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wisla Plock 20% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Wisla Plock 1.28 / Pogon Szczecin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.861 / def 0.968 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.812 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pogon Szczecin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 40% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.86x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wisla Plock's last 47 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.11
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.31
1.02
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.02 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 13D 18L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.30 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 5D 7L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 4D 11L from their last 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.43 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Wisla Plock (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.59 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 27%, Pogon Szczecin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Wisla Plock) and 41% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 46% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 77% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.