Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Wisla Plock and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 49% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / defence 1.072 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Cracovia Krakow games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 24%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Wisla Plock 4.17. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.81 / Wisla Plock 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / def 1.072 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 48% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.53
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.06
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
4%
25.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.25 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 10W 17D 12L from 39 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 15L across 39 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.21 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 7W 9D 4L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 17D 12L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Plock away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 60%, Wisla Plock at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.