Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this season: 7W 2D 0L from 9 home games — 2.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.44 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Lechia Gdansk 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 56% | Lechia Gdansk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.995 / defence 0.798 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.151 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.193. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Wisla Plock games / 18 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Lechia Gdansk 4.00. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 33% | Lechia Gdansk 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Wisla Plock 1.66 / Lechia Gdansk 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.995 / def 0.798 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.151 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Lechia Gdansk xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 50% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.15x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.10
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.75
1.10
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.10 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 2D 8L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.83 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wisla Plock's home form reads 7W 2D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.83 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.56 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 33%, Lechia Gdansk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 44% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 56% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 44% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Lechia Gdansk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.10 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.15 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 25%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 56%, Lechia Gdansk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.44 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.