Radomiak Radom 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Radomiak Radom welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 4D 0L at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza — 2.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 1W 0D 8L from 9 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 58% versus Wisla Plock 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 42% | Wisla Plock 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.98 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.053 / defence 1.061 | Wisla Plock attack 0.910 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.228. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Radomiak Radom games / 19 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 56% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 22%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Wisla Plock 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 78% | Wisla Plock 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 56% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.98 / Wisla Plock 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.053 / def 1.061 | Wisla Plock attack 0.910 / def 1.547 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 February 2022 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 56% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.61
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.17
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
3%
32.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.19 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 9W 8D 2L from 19 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 8L across 19 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.84 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 5W 4D 0L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 1W 0D 8L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.53 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 8D 2L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 9W 2D 8L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Wisla Plock away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.11 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 78%, Wisla Plock at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Radomiak Radom and 78% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Radomiak Radom's games and 78% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 78% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 20, as Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.98 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.55, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 56% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 22%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 42%, Wisla Plock 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.84 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.