Piast Gliwice 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet in-form Stal Mielec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stal Mielec (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Stal Mielec have posted 1W 4D 3L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stal Mielec arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Stal Mielec in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Stal Mielec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 50% versus Stal Mielec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 39% | Stal Mielec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.49 xG and Stal Mielec 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.978 / defence 1.366 | Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.182. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Piast Gliwice games / 18 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 38%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Stal Mielec 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 67% | Stal Mielec 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.49 / Stal Mielec 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.978 / def 1.366 | Stal Mielec attack 0.922 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Stal Mielec xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.92x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.10
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.98
1.49
Stal Mielec xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.49 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 4D 8L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.50 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Piast Gliwice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Stal Mielec away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.62 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Piast Gliwice 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Piast Gliwice, 75% for Stal Mielec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Piast Gliwice's games and 75% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.49 xG and Stal Mielec 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.98 / defence 1.37 against Stal Mielec attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 38%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 39%, Stal Mielec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.22 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.