Legia Warszawa 0-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 0D 4L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 4D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.44 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Legia Warszawa's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 41% versus Radomiak Radom 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Radomiak Radom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.964 / defence 1.178 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.906 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.180. Data: 17 Legia Warszawa games / 18 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 41%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 38% | Radomiak Radom 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.05 / Radomiak Radom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.964 / def 1.178 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.906 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 31% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.96) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.55
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.26 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 5W 0D 12L from 17 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 2L across 17 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Legia Warszawa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 12L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 7D 2L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 38%, Radomiak Radom 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 38% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Legia Warszawa 0-3 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.05 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 31% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 41%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 47%, Radomiak Radom 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.