Wisla Krakow 0-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 38%, yet in-form Stal Mielec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow host Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 1W 5D 3L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Stal Mielec's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Wisla Krakow's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Krakow, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 40% versus Stal Mielec 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 55% | Stal Mielec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.28 xG and Stal Mielec 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.889 / defence 1.143 | Stal Mielec attack 0.864 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.199. Data: 20 Wisla Krakow games / 20 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 38% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 33%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stal Mielec (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 22% | Stal Mielec 78%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 38% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.28 / Stal Mielec 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.889 / def 1.143 | Stal Mielec attack 0.864 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stal Mielec xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 38% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (0.89) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.48
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.46
1.18
Stal Mielec xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.18 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 6L across 20 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.05 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 1W 5D 3L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Stal Mielec away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.44 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 22%, Stal Mielec 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wisla Krakow) and 44% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 78% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 44% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Wisla Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Wisla Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.28 xG and Stal Mielec 1.18 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Krakow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Stal Mielec attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 38% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 33%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 55%, Stal Mielec 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.05 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.