Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 39%, yet in-form Górnik Łęczna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Górnik plays host to Górnik Łęczna versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 11 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Górnik Łęczna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's home record at Stadion Górnik: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Górnik Łęczna's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Slask Wroclaw's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Górnik Łęczna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Slask Wroclaw in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Górnik Łęczna 0W, Slask Wroclaw 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Górnik Łęczna half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Górnik Łęczna 70% and Slask Wroclaw 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 55% | Slask Wroclaw 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.40 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.813 / defence 1.305 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.913 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.225. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Górnik Łęczna games / 20 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 39%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Slask Wroclaw 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Górnik Łęczna (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Górnik Łęczna 70% | Slask Wroclaw 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.40 / Slask Wroclaw 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.813 / def 1.305 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.913 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Slask Wroclaw xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 36% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.91x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.93
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.85
1.46
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.46 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 7D 9L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Górnik Łęczna against 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Górnik Łęczna have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.00 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
2
Draws
0
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Slask Wroclaw have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Górnik Łęczna, 70% for Slask Wroclaw — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Górnik Łęczna and 70% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 70% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Górnik Łęczna's matches and 70% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 21, as Górnik Łęczna and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.40 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.46 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.91 / defence 1.43, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 39%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 55%, Slask Wroclaw 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Górnik Łęczna 0.95 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.