Gornik Zabrze 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia meet at Arena Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Zabrze, Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Gornik Zabrze's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jagiellonia's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 65% and Jagiellonia 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 60% | Jagiellonia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.83 xG and Jagiellonia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.059 / defence 1.180 | Jagiellonia attack 0.742 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.203. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Gornik Zabrze games / 20 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.83 / Jagiellonia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.059 / def 1.180 | Jagiellonia attack 0.742 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jagiellonia xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 56% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.74x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.39
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
Jagiellonia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
3%
29.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.05 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 9W 4D 7L from 20 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 8L across 20 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.20 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.25 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Jagiellonia away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.70 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Gornik Zabrze and 70% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 30% of games; Jagiellonia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 70% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2 at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.83 xG and Jagiellonia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 0.74 / defence 1.49, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 22%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 60%, Jagiellonia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.55 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.