Stal Mielec 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion MOSiR to take on Stal Mielec. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 February 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec at Stadion MOSiR this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stal Mielec, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 57% versus Pogon Szczecin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 48% | Pogon Szczecin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.00 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.947 / defence 1.214 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.949 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.207. Data: 21 Stal Mielec games / 21 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 46%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Stal Mielec 1.00 / Pogon Szczecin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.947 / def 1.214 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.949 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Stal Mielec 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 27% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.95) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
27%
3.71
27%
3.70
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.39
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.39 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 7D 6L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (12W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stal Mielec's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.86 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 12W 7D 2L in their last 21 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.82 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
1
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 46%, Pogon Szczecin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stal Mielec) and 18% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 36%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 27% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 18% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Stal Mielec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 0-1 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.00 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 46%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 48%, Pogon Szczecin 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.