Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.20 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 8 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Widzew Łódź 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.41 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / defence 0.996 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.021 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 32%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Widzew Łódź 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 36% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.41 / Widzew Łódź 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.021 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Widzew Łódź xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 7W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.01) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.16
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.74
1.33
Widzew Łódź xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 15W 8D 16L from 39 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 18L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.15 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 10W 4D 6L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.70 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 65%, Widzew Łódź 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pogon Szczecin) and 45% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 45% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.