Widzew Łódź 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Widzew Łódź, 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Pogon Szczecin in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 46% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 0.78 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.784 / defence 1.062 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.005 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.249. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Widzew Łódź games / 52 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 2.08. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Pogon Szczecin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Widzew Łódź 0.78 / Pogon Szczecin 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.784 / def 1.062 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.005 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Pogon Szczecin xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 20% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.78) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.00x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.17
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.11
1.33
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.77
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.33 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 12D 23L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.67 PPG from 52 outings (25W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 10W 3D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.71 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.32 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 44%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 44% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 28% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 44% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 0.78 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.33 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 20% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 48%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.