Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Warta Poznań make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 15 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.00 for Warta Poznań. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 2W, Warta Poznań 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Warta Poznań 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 42% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Warta Poznań 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.839 / defence 0.750 | Warta Poznań attack 1.102 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.240. Gornik Zabrze's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Gornik Zabrze games / 52 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Warta Poznań 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Warta Poznań 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.14 / Warta Poznań 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.839 / def 0.750 | Warta Poznań attack 1.102 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Warta Poznań xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.84x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.10x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
36%
2.75
33%
3.03
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Warta Poznań xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.02 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 14D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (16W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.23 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.10 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 16W 16D 20L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Warta Poznań away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.48 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 3-0 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2023, when Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Warta Poznań 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Gornik Zabrze and 32% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 40%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 28% of games; Warta Poznań in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 36% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 32% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Warta Poznań 3-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Warta Poznań 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against Warta Poznań attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 33% | Warta Poznań 31%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 42%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.37 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.