Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 3D 2L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Widzew Łódź are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Puszcza Niepołomice register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Widzew Łódź in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 2–3 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 69% and Widzew Łódź 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Widzew Łódź 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.879 / defence 1.175 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.117 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.256. Data: 16 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 51 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 27% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 45%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 2.22. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 75% | Widzew Łódź 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 27% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.23 / Widzew Łódź 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.879 / def 1.175 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.117 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Widzew Łódź xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 27% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.12x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 16/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.57
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.65
Widzew Łódź xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.65 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.19 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.50 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2025, when Widzew Łódź 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Puszcza Niepołomice, 100% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 50% (Widzew Łódź).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 100% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 16/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 27% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 45%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Puszcza Niepołomice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 50%, Widzew Łódź 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.