Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Zaglebie Lubin's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Slask Wroclaw's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Slask Wroclaw arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Slask Wroclaw — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 44% versus Slask Wroclaw 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Slask Wroclaw 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.843 / defence 1.073 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.018 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.231. Slask Wroclaw bring a tight defence (rating 0.757, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Zaglebie Lubin's projected output down. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 52 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 52.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 23% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 45%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 4.27 | Draw 3.19 | Slask Wroclaw 2.21. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 23% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 / Slask Wroclaw 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.843 / def 1.073 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.018 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 23% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.84x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (1.02x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 52 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
23%
4.27
31%
3.19
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.25
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.34 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 19W 13D 20L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 16L across 52 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.46 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 8W 8D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 7D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.23 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.23 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won Slask Wroclaw 0-3 Zaglebie Lubin on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Zaglebie Lubin and 31% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 35%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 35% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 31% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 69% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slask Wroclaw edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.34 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.02 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 23% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 45%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Slask Wroclaw 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.35 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.