Warta Poznań 3-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii plays host to Warta Poznań versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Radomiak Radom are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Radomiak Radom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 24% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.72 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.703 / defence 1.172 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.990 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.188. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Warta Poznań games / 21 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 20% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 52%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 1.92. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 20% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Warta Poznań 0.72 / Radomiak Radom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.703 / def 1.172 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.990 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Warta Poznań 3 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 20% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.70x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.99x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
20%
5.12
28%
3.57
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.10
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
5%
20.32
25%
3.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.8 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.38 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 4W 8D 9L from 21 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 3L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Warta Poznań heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Warta Poznań have managed 1W 5D 4L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 9D 3L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.80 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 50%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Warta Poznań and 40% for Radomiak Radom.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 40%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 50% of games; Radomiak Radom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.72 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 20% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 52%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Warta Poznań win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 24%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Warta Poznań winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.