Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 3W 4D 2L at Stadion Miejski — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Slask Wroclaw 0W, Piast Gliwice 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 71% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 62% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.05 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.921 / defence 1.235 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.949 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.183. Data: 21 Slask Wroclaw games / 21 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 28% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 45%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Piast Gliwice 2.22. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 67% | Piast Gliwice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 28% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.05 / Piast Gliwice 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.921 / def 1.235 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.949 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Piast Gliwice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 28% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.92x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.95x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.43
1.39
Piast Gliwice xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.39 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 9L across 21 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.24 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.44 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 67%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Slask Wroclaw) and 22% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 22% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Slask Wroclaw 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.05 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.39 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 28% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 45%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 62%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.19 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.