Stal Mielec 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion MOSiR plays host to Stal Mielec versus Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Stal Mielec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec at Stadion MOSiR this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lech Poznan — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 50% versus Lech Poznan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 42% | Lech Poznan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.23 xG and Lech Poznan 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.018 / defence 1.214 | Lech Poznan attack 0.950 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.237. Data: 12 Stal Mielec games / 12 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Lech Poznan 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 33% | Lech Poznan 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Stal Mielec 1.23 / Lech Poznan 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.018 / def 1.214 | Lech Poznan attack 0.950 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan part of?
Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 33% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 1.02x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (0.95x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.86
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.66
1.43
Lech Poznan xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.43 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lech Poznan sit at 2.25 PPG from 12 outings (8W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stal Mielec's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lech Poznan have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.25 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Lech Poznan away?
Stal Mielec's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 2.40 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lech Poznan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Lech Poznan 3-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 40%, Lech Poznan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stal Mielec and 60% for Lech Poznan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 60% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stal Mielec's matches and 60% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Lech Poznan finished level at 0-0 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.23 xG and Lech Poznan 1.43 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Lech Poznan attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 42%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.