Legia Warszawa 0-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 36%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1W 3D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.11 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / defence 1.213 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.690 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.212. Data: 10 Legia Warszawa games / 12 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.11 / Pogon Szczecin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / def 1.213 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.690 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 36% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.10
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.13
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.01 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 0D 7L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.70 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.50 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Legia Warszawa and 0% for Pogon Szczecin.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Legia Warszawa 0-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.11 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Pogon Szczecin 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.