Warta Poznań 0-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stal Mielec at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Stal Mielec at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Warta Poznań have gone 0W 3D 2L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stal Mielec — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 27% versus Stal Mielec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 27% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.94 xG and Stal Mielec 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.564 / defence 1.196 | Stal Mielec attack 0.912 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.250. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.564 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Warta Poznań games / 11 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 47%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Stal Mielec 2.13. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 40% | Stal Mielec 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Warta Poznań 0.94 / Stal Mielec 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.564 / def 1.196 | Stal Mielec attack 0.912 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Stal Mielec xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań 0 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec part of?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 26% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.56x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
26%
3.85
28%
3.64
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.31
1.36
Stal Mielec xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.36 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 4D 6L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stal Mielec are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Stal Mielec away?
Warta Poznań's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.60 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 40%, Stal Mielec 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Warta Poznań and 40% for Stal Mielec.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Warta Poznań's games and 80% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 40% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Warta Poznań's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.94 xG and Stal Mielec 1.36 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stal Mielec landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.56 / defence 1.20 against Stal Mielec attack 0.91 / defence 1.36, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 47%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 27%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.