Legia Warszawa 1-3 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stal Mielec at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stal Mielec make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Stal Mielec have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 0W 4D 2L from 6 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stal Mielec arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 46% versus Stal Mielec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 46% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.26 xG and Stal Mielec 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.841 / defence 1.331 | Stal Mielec attack 0.786 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.209. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Legia Warszawa games / 13 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 35%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Stal Mielec 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 40% | Stal Mielec 67%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.26 / Stal Mielec 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.841 / def 1.331 | Stal Mielec attack 0.786 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stal Mielec xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 3 Stal Mielec.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 35% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.84x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.79x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 11/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.37
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.52
1.26
Stal Mielec xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.26 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 3W 0D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stal Mielec are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Stal Mielec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 8L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Stal Mielec away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.20 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Legia Warszawa 2-2 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 40%, Stal Mielec 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Legia Warszawa) and 40% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 40% of games; Stal Mielec in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 60% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 40% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Legia Warszawa 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.26 xG and Stal Mielec 1.26 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 1.33 against Stal Mielec attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 11/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 35%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 46%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.