Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tarczyński Arena plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 3 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 4D 4L at Tarczyński Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Slask Wroclaw 1W, Piast Gliwice 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 52% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Slask Wroclaw 46% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 0.97 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.808 / defence 1.093 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.852 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.141. Data: 52 Slask Wroclaw games / 52 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 36%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 60% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Slask Wroclaw 0.97 / Piast Gliwice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.808 / def 1.093 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.852 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Piast Gliwice xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 February 2025 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 31% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Record (7 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.81x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.85x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
31%
3.25
34%
2.97
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.03
1.06
Piast Gliwice xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.06 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 19W 16D 17L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 23D 15L across 52 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.25 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 5W 11D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.08 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 16D 17L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 23D 15L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.46 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 58%, Piast Gliwice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Slask Wroclaw and 19% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 27% of games; Piast Gliwice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 42% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 19% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Slask Wroclaw 1-3 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.97 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 36%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.40 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.