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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Radomiak Radom.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Chorten Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 3–2 with Jagiellonia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Radomiak Radom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 69% | Radomiak Radom 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.218 / defence 1.113 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.924 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.159. Data: 52 Jagiellonia games / 52 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.

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