Jagiellonia 5-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Chorten Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 3–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Radomiak Radom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 69% | Radomiak Radom 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.218 / defence 1.113 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.924 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.159. Data: 52 Jagiellonia games / 52 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Jagiellonia 1.70 / Radomiak Radom 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.218 / def 1.113 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.924 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia 5 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 48% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 3W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.92x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.86
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.89
1.19
Radomiak Radom xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.19 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 52 games, going 28W 14D 10L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (16W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (9W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 28W 14D 10L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 10D 26L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.19 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 62%, Radomiak Radom 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jagiellonia and 54% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jagiellonia's matches and 54% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Radomiak Radom 5-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 1.11 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 48% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 69%, Radomiak Radom 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.