Piast Gliwice 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Current Form
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 0.90 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Piast Gliwice lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 45% versus Legia Warszawa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 32% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.876 / defence 0.970 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.220 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.161. Legia Warszawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Piast Gliwice games / 53 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Legia Warszawa 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.23 / Legia Warszawa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.876 / def 0.970 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.220 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.88x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.22x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.39
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.38 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 23D 15L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 25W 17D 11L from 53 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (9W 12D 5L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 9D 6L from 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.66 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 60%.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 23D 15L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 17D 11L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.50 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 46%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 42% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.22 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 39%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.