Legia Warszawa 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Legia Warszawa face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Korona Kielce at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Legia Warszawa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Korona Kielce in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Korona Kielce, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 60% versus Korona Kielce 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.86 xG and Korona Kielce 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.274 / defence 1.031 | Korona Kielce attack 0.920 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.142. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Legia Warszawa games / 52 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 21%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Korona Kielce 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 80% | Korona Kielce 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.86 / Korona Kielce 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.274 / def 1.031 | Korona Kielce attack 0.920 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Korona Kielce xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 55% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 2 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.10
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.94
1.08
Korona Kielce xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
3%
30.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.08 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 25W 16D 11L from 52 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 20L across 52 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.06 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 16D 11L in their last 52 games (1.75 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 20D 20L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.88 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 65%, Korona Kielce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Legia Warszawa) and 42% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Legia Warszawa's games and 54% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 42% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, as Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.86 xG and Korona Kielce 1.08 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against Korona Kielce attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 21%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.