🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Widzew Łódź.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Widzew Łódź 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Widzew Łódź 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / defence 0.925 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.877 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 67 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 54% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights