Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.40 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Cracovia Krakow 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.878 / defence 1.137 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.987 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Zaglebie Lubin games / 67 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 / Cracovia Krakow 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.878 / def 1.137 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.987 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.85
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.71
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.40 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 23W 14D 30L from 67 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 22L across 67 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 13W 8D 12L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 11W 11D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.51 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 14D 30L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 24D 22L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.42 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Cracovia Krakow 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 39% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 30%; Cracovia Krakow in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 39% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Cracovia Krakow 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.