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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.

Current Form

Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Motor Lublin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Motor Lublin's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Motor Lublin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Motor Lublin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Motor Lublin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 61% | Motor Lublin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / defence 0.895 | Motor Lublin attack 0.769 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Radomiak Radom games / 33 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 60% | Draw 23% | Motor Lublin 17%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Motor Lublin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Motor Lublin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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