Widzew Łódź 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.40 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Widzew Łódź, 3 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 44% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.868 / defence 0.940 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.884 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.427. Data: 34 Widzew Łódź games / 34 Zaglebie Lubin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 34%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.28 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.868 / def 0.940 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.884 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 38% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 3W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.87) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.58
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.19 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 11W 7D 16L from 34 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. Widzew Łódź haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 18L across 34 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. Zaglebie Lubin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.18 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 2D 7L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 0.97 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Pre-Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.53 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 35%, Zaglebie Lubin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Widzew Łódź) and 35% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 35% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 35% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 38% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 34%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 44%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.