Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Raków Częstochowa at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.40 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Raków Częstochowa: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Pogon Szczecin, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 0–2 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.765 / defence 0.802 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.871 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.160. Raków Częstochowa's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 57 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 57.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.49 | Draw 2.90 | Pogon Szczecin 3.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Raków Częstochowa 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.09 / Pogon Szczecin 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.765 / def 0.802 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.871 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pogon Szczecin xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.77x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 57 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.90
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
1.90
0.81
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.81 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 30W 13D 14L from 57 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 20L across 57 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.81 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 14W 6D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.61 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
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Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
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Pogon Szczecin
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❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 30W 13D 14L in their last 57 games (1.81 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.71 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 71% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.09 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.77 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.81 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.