Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 1W, Warta Poznań 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 64% versus Warta Poznań 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Warta Poznań 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 xG and Warta Poznań 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.864 / defence 1.134 | Warta Poznań attack 0.820 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.138. Data: 31 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 65 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 29%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Warta Poznań 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% | Warta Poznań 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 / Warta Poznań 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.864 / def 1.134 | Warta Poznań attack 0.820 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Warta Poznań xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 40% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.86) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.82x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.18
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.34
1.06
Warta Poznań xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.06 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 7W 12D 12L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 9W 10D 12L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.19 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (5W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.06 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 7W 12D 12L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Warta Poznań away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.53 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań?
From 2 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 80%, Warta Poznań 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 40% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 33%; Warta Poznań in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Warta Poznań?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 40% of Warta Poznań's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 40% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Puszcza Niepołomice edge out Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 xG and Warta Poznań 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Warta Poznań attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 29%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 42%, Warta Poznań 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.06 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.