Warta Poznań 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Warta Poznań welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Warta Poznań) versus 1.20 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Warta Poznań have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 4–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Warta Poznań trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 36% versus Zaglebie Lubin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.785 / defence 1.295 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.852 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.172. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Warta Poznań games / 42 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Warta Poznań 0.99 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.785 / def 1.295 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.852 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Zaglebie Lubin xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Warta Poznań 2 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 28% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (2 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.79x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.56
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.28
1.29
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.29 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (13W 8D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.24 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Warta Poznań's home form reads 4W 6D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.12 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.90 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 55%, Zaglebie Lubin 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Warta Poznań) and 55% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 35%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 35% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 9, as Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 33%, Zaglebie Lubin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.24 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.