Nieciecza 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 48%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza to take on Nieciecza. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 February 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Jagiellonia's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nieciecza's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nieciecza, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 72% and Jagiellonia 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 56% | Jagiellonia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.76 xG and Jagiellonia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.994 / defence 1.423 | Jagiellonia attack 0.759 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.196. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Nieciecza games / 19 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 48% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Jagiellonia 3.57. Nieciecza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nieciecza are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nieciecza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 89% | Jagiellonia 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 48% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Nieciecza 1.76 / Jagiellonia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.994 / def 1.423 | Jagiellonia attack 0.759 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jagiellonia xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia?
Nieciecza 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia part of?
Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 48% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nieciecza and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Nieciecza and Jagiellonia in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
48%
2.06
23%
4.28
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
3.05
1.29
Jagiellonia xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
5%
20.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.29 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 6D 10L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nieciecza's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Jagiellonia away?
Nieciecza's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nieciecza and Jagiellonia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nieciecza have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2025, when Nieciecza won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nieciecza
0
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Jagiellonia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Nieciecza 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Jagiellonia?
Nieciecza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nieciecza at 89%, Jagiellonia at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nieciecza and 67% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Nieciecza's games and 56% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nieciecza's matches and 67% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Nieciecza and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nieciecza edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.76 xG and Jagiellonia 1.29 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.99 / defence 1.42 against Jagiellonia attack 0.76 / defence 1.45, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 48% | Draw 23% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 56%, Jagiellonia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.