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Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, Lechia Gdansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights