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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 1-3 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Lech Poznan attack 0.98 / defence 0.71, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 33%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, Lech Poznan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights