Radomiak Radom 0-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GKS Katowice make the trip to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Radomiak Radom have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GKS Katowice (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, GKS Katowice have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Radomiak Radom, 1.90 for GKS Katowice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for GKS Katowice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 2–3 GKS Katowice — a GKS Katowice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 70% versus GKS Katowice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | GKS Katowice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and GKS Katowice 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.186 / defence 1.015 | GKS Katowice attack 1.107 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.164. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 57 games and GKS Katowice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.21 | Draw 3.71 | GKS Katowice 3.60. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.71 / GKS Katowice 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.186 / def 1.015 | GKS Katowice attack 1.107 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.31
GKS Katowice xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 45% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.19x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (1.11x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 57 games and GKS Katowice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.71
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.02
1.31
GKS Katowice xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.31 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 16D 22L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.41 PPG from 56 outings (23W 10D 23L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.41 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.43 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 23W 10D 23L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or GKS Katowice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.70 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, GKS Katowice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Radomiak Radom) and 59% (GKS Katowice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 44% of GKS Katowice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 59% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 89% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GKS Katowice defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and GKS Katowice 1.31 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against GKS Katowice attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 45% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 28%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual GKS Katowice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, GKS Katowice 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.