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Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Arka Gdynia 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.58 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Arka Gdynia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights