Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Puszcza Niepołomice face Warta Poznań.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Current Form

Puszcza Niepołomice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Warta Poznań (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Puszcza Niepołomice edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 2–0 Warta Poznań — a Puszcza Niepołomice win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 64% versus Warta Poznań 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Warta Poznań 36%). Note also that Warta Poznań surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Puszcza Niepołomice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.28 xG and Warta Poznań 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.864 / defence 1.134 | Warta Poznań attack 0.820 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.138. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 31 games and Warta Poznań's last 65.

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 29%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.51 | Draw 3.18 | Warta Poznań 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 30% (last 10 away games).

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