Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 36%, yet in-form Widzew Łódź provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Respect Energy — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Widzew Łódź are 0.80 PPG clear of Warta Poznań in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Warta Poznań lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 31% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.924 / defence 0.963 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.112 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.160. Data: 64 Warta Poznań games / 64 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Widzew Łódź 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Warta Poznań 1.31 / Widzew Łódź 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.924 / def 0.963 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.112 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 36% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.92x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.11x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.33
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.55
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.24 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 19D 25L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 23W 14D 27L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.30 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (9W 12D 11L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 11D 12L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.20 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.22 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Warta Poznań go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
From 4 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 47%, Widzew Łódź 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Warta Poznań) and 44% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 56% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Warta Poznań edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.