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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Puszcza Niepołomice face Raków Częstochowa.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach to take on Puszcza Niepołomice. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.919 / defence 1.095 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.162 / defence 0.575. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.167. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.575 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 60 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 1.85. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.

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