Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach to take on Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Raków Częstochowa stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 0–2 Raków Częstochowa — a Raków Częstochowa win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Raków Częstochowa 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Puszcza Niepołomice surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Raków Częstochowa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.919 / defence 1.095 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.162 / defence 0.575. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.167. Raków Częstochowa bring a tight defence (rating 0.575, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output down. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 60 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 60.

Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 5.16 | Draw 3.79 | Raków Częstochowa 1.84. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 30% (last 10 away games).

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