ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
ŁKS Łódź — last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2W 2D 4L from their last 8 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Legia Warszawa have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2023, ended ŁKS Łódź 0–3 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ŁKS Łódź trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 38% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 56% | Legia Warszawa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.08 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.783 / defence 1.569 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.135 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.258. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. ŁKS Łódź's defence rating of 1.569 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Legia Warszawa's projected output up. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 16 games and Legia Warszawa's last 50.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 6.32 | Draw 4.58 | Legia Warszawa 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.08 / 2.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (ŁKS Łódź's last 8 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 38% (last 8 home games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.08 / Legia Warszawa 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.783 / def 1.569 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.135 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 18) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 16% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 16 games and Legia Warszawa's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
16%
6.32
22%
4.58
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
3.32
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
6.32
16%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
11%
9.40
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
2%
59.40
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 2.24 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 2W 2D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 8W 4D 4L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ŁKS Łódź have posted 0.71 PPG from their last 7 home games (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 2D 12L in their last 16 games (0.50 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 0.71 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.57 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2023: ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 29%, Legia Warszawa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (ŁKS Łódź) and 43% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 57% of games; Legia Warszawa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 86% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.08 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 1.57 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 16% | Draw 22% | Legia Warszawa 62%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 56%, Legia Warszawa 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.