Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Puszcza Niepołomice versus Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 2W 3D 2L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.40 for Gornik Zabrze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 67% versus Gornik Zabrze 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 47% | Gornik Zabrze 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.810 / defence 1.269 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.140 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.182. Data: 15 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 49 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 22% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 50%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Gornik Zabrze 2.00. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 71% | Gornik Zabrze 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 22% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 / Gornik Zabrze 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.810 / def 1.269 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.140 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 22% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.14x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
22%
4.62
28%
3.54
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
25.54
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.71 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 3W 4D 8L from 15 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 6L across 15 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.07 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.29 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
Draws
0
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Puszcza Niepołomice, 71% for Gornik Zabrze — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 57% (Gornik Zabrze).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 71% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 57% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.07 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 22% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 50%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 47%, Gornik Zabrze 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Puszcza Niepołomice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.