Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Gornik Zabrze, 2.00 for Wisla Krakow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gornik Zabrze lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 100% and Wisla Krakow 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Gornik Zabrze 100% | Wisla Krakow 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.42 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.128 / defence 0.986 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.044 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.231. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Gornik Zabrze games / 3 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 62% | Draw 20% | Wisla Krakow 18%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Wisla Krakow 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 62% | Draw 20% | Wisla Krakow 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.42 / Wisla Krakow 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.128 / def 0.986 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.044 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wisla Krakow xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 2 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 62% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.13x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (1.04x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 36/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.92
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.69
1.27
Wisla Krakow xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
63.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.27 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 3 games, going 3W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Wisla Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 3.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Krakow won 4-1 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Gornik Zabrze
0
Draws
2
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Gornik Zabrze, 100% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Gornik Zabrze and 100% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Wisla Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Wisla Krakow 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.42 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.27 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Wisla Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.40, drawn from 36/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 62% | Draw 20% | Wisla Krakow 18%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 100%, Wisla Krakow 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Gornik Zabrze managed 2 against a 3.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Krakow managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.