Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom at this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.10 PPG, Piast Gliwice 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Piast Gliwice and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Piast Gliwice 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Piast Gliwice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / defence 1.010 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.914 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 40 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 32% | Piast Gliwice 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Piast Gliwice 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 32% | Piast Gliwice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.50 / Piast Gliwice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / def 1.010 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.914 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Piast Gliwice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 September 2026.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 41% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Record (10 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 5 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.94) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.17
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.70
1.20
Piast Gliwice xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 13W 12D 15L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 9D 18L from 40 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.27 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.30 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
5
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 70%, Piast Gliwice at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Radomiak Radom and 60% for Piast Gliwice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 60% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 60% of Piast Gliwice's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.