Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 1.50 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Pogon Szczecin.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.67 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / defence 0.996 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.67 / Raków Częstochowa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 6W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.01x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.37
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.93
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
5%
20.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.26 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 15L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.39 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.63 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 63%, Raków Częstochowa at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Pogon Szczecin and 63% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 74% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 63% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.