Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Puszcza Niepołomice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice — a Pogon Szczecin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 47% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Puszcza Niepołomice 43%). Note also that Puszcza Niepołomice surrender HT leads in 64% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.72 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.262 / defence 1.176 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.732 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.176. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 64 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 30.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.91 | Draw 3.69 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.87. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 60% (last 10 home games) | Puszcza Niepołomice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.72 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.262 / def 1.176 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.732 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Puszcza Niepołomice's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.73x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 64 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.69
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.73
1.01
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.01 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 7W 12D 11L from 30 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 15 home games (7W 2D 6L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 4D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.20 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 67%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Puszcza Niepołomice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 7W 12D 11L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.53 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 60%, Puszcza Niepołomice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pogon Szczecin) and 40% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin have failed to score in 27% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 53% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 40% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 73% of Puszcza Niepołomice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.72 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 1.18 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Puszcza Niepołomice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.