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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights