Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Korona Kielce away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.30 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 48% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Korona Kielce 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Korona Kielce 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.084 / defence 0.932 | Korona Kielce attack 1.005 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.161. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 58 games and Korona Kielce's last 58.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 29%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.46 | Draw 3.34 | Korona Kielce 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 70% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.32 / Korona Kielce 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.084 / def 0.932 | Korona Kielce attack 1.005 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Korona Kielce xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.08) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (1.00x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 58 games and Korona Kielce's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.34
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Korona Kielce xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.09 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 11D 21L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.34 PPG from 58 outings (20W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.34 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 20W 4D 5L across their last 29 home games, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 13D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 11D 21L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.21 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 45%, Korona Kielce 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Pogon Szczecin) and 31% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 59% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 31% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 66% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Korona Kielce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Korona Kielce 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Korona Kielce 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Korona Kielce 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.